Fri Nov 22, 2002 1:45 pm

Hola Javier:

Estuve leyendo ayer tu trabajo sobre “leading” y no me quedo
claro si tambien habrán “Coincident” y “Lagging”. Aquí te transcribo
un artículo que encontre a través de Yahoo! donde curiosamente lo
hace una .ORG, no un .GOV o un .COM. ¿Como se clasificaría el
indicador de MacroConsult?

Gracias, Farid.

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U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Hold Steady

Nov. 21, 2002

More data and charts at http://www.globalindicators.org

The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading,
coincident and lagging indexes all held steady in October.

Strong real money growth and lower unemployment claims in October
offset weak consumer expectations and faster deliveries, as measured
by vendor performance.
The coincident index performance continues to suggest a recovering
yet fragile economy. Industrial production has shed some of its
gains from the first half of the year and nonagricultural employment
has essentially remained unchanged. Moderate growth in personal
income and manufacturing and trade sales continue to sustain
economic growth.
Although the leading index has been flat or declining over the past
five months, it is only 0.2 percent below its level from April of
this year.
Leading Indicators. Six of the ten indicators that make up the
leading index increased in October. The positive contributors to the
index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were real
money supply*, average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance (inverted), manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense
capital goods*, building permits, interest rate spread, and
manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials*. The
four negative contributors – from the largest negative contributor
to the smallest – were index of consumer expectations, vendor
performance, average weekly manufacturing hours, and stock prices.

The leading index now stands at 111.4 (1996=100). Based on revised
data, this index decreased 0.4 percent in September and decreased
0.2 percent in August. During the six-month span through October,
the leading index decreased 0.2 percent, with six of the ten
components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 40
percent).

Coincident Indicators. Two of the four indicators that make up the
coincident index increased in October. The larger contributor to the
index was personal income less transfer payments*, followed by
manufacturing and trade sales*. Industrial production decreased in
October while employees on nonagricultural payrolls held steady.

Holding steady, the coincident index now stands at 115.1 (1996=100).
Based on revised data, this index held steady in September and
increased 0.1 percent in August. During the six-month period through
October, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent.

Lagging Indicators. The lagging index held steady at 100.0
(1996=100) in October. Two of the seven components declined in
October. The negative contributors to the index – beginning with the
larger negative contributor – were commercial and industrial loans
outstanding* and change in CPI for services. The positive
contributors to the index were average duration of unemployment,
change in labor cost per unit of output*, ratio of consumer
installment credit to personal income*, and ratio of manufacturing
and trade inventories to sales*. Average prime rate charged by banks
held steady in October. Based on revised data, the lagging index
decreased 0.5 percent in September and decreased 0.2 percent in
August.

Data Availability. The data series used by The Conference Board to
compute the three composite indexes and reported in the tables in
this release are those available “as of” 12 Noon on November 20,
2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.

*Notes: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference
Board estimates are manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and
materials, manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods,
and the personal consumption expenditure deflator for money supply.
Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference
Board estimates are personal income less transfer payments and
manufacturing and trade sales. Series in the lagging index that are
based on The Conference Board estimates are inventories to sales
ratio, consumer installment credit to income ratio, change in labor
cost per unit of output, and the personal consumption expenditure
deflator for commercial and industrial loans outstanding.

The next release is scheduled for December 19, 2002 at 10 A.M. ET.

For further information contact:
Frank Tortorici
(1) 212 339 0231
f.tortorici@conference-board.org

Ken Goldstein
(1) 212 339 0331
ken.goldstein@conference-board.org

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