Archive for leading indicators

INEI: Tres Banderas Rojas (3-I-09)

Posted in 01 - Enero, Año 2009 with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on January 27, 2009 by Farid Matuk

 

http://www1.inei.gob.pe/web/Boletin/Attach/7806.pdf

Este es el boletín del INEI conocido como “Avance Coyuntural”, que básicamente resume un conjunto de variables que no son pronosticadas, como lo son los Indicadores Lideres del MEF o los Reportes de Inflación del BCR, sino que mas bien acopia la información disponible

 
1ra Bandera: Ïndice del subsector fabril no primario
Muestra la tasa de crecimiento mas baja de los últimos tres años.
 
2da Bandera: Ïndice del subsector electricidad
Muestra la tasa de crecimiento mas baja de los últimos tres años.
 
3ra Bandera: Ïndice del consumo interno de cemento 
Muestra la segunda tasa de crecimiento mas baja de los últimos tres años, la mas baja fue en Febrero 2007.
 
En síntesis, tenemos una fuerte desaceleración de la actividad económica que se contradice con los continuos incrementos de los indicadores financieros de: 1) créditos en moneda nacional, 2) créditos en moneda extranjera, 3) créditos comerciales, 4) créditos hipotecarios, y 5) créditos de consumo.
 
Por tercer mes consecutivo tenemos un déficit en balanza comercial, es decir que importamos mas que lo exportamos, lo que conduce a una pérdida de reservas internacionales que no esta siendo compensada por inversiones extranjeras, sino mas bien acentuada por el retiro de sus ganancias producidas en el Perú.
 
Esta tendencia es un claro rumbo al desastre, que aun puede evitarse con una fuerte restricción planificada de las importaciones. De no ser así, el mercado se encargará de reducir las importaciones, via una devaluación traumática que reduzca indiscrimidamente la capacidad adquisitiva de los hogares.
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Sun Dec 15, 2002 3:24 pm

Posted in 2002-12 Diciembre with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on January 25, 2009 by Farid Matuk

PBI Trimestral

 

Hola Javier:

Como sabes el Instituto no mide al presente el PBI trimestral. El
Instituto reporta la actividad económica mensual en base a la
información acopiada por las OSE (Oficinas Sectoriales Estadísticas)
y sus consiguientes actualizaciones. Pero hay que recordar que esta
información es prácticamente de carácter administrativo y no de
campo; además de proveer solamente del lado de la oferta.

De otro lado, el PBI anual es medido por el Instituto con
información de campo, para el 2000 por ejemplo, se tienen cerca de
30,000 EEA (Encuestas Económicas Anuales) de establecimientos; las
cuales unidas a la ENAHO (Encuesta Nacional de Hogares) del mismo
año con alrededor de 18,000 hogares permiten construir la tabla 2.10
del SCN/93(Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales) y de esta manera se tiene
la producción total medida por los tres métodos: oferta, demanda, e
ingreso.

Un abrazo, Farid

— In MacroPeru@yahoogroups.com, “jkapsol <jkapsol@y…>”
<jkapsol@y…> wrote:
> Bruno
>
> Esta revision que comentas ya se izo el mes pasado. En la
publicacion
> que reporta el Indice Lider ay una nota referente a los cambios en
> los datos istoricos son debido a que el INEI abia cambiado los
> valores pasados. En particular el crecimiento del 2 trimestre
pasaba
> de 5.2 a 6.1.
>
> Esto lo comente yo tambien en un mensaje pasado a lo que Farid me
> replico que los cambios fueron responsabilidad de las oficinas
> sectoriales.
>
> Javier
>
> — In MacroPeru@yahoogroups.com, “Bruno Seminario
> <lbseminario@y…>” <lbseminario@y…> wrote:
> > Les recomiendo que miren con atencion el ultimo boletin del iNEI
ya
> > que publica una serie revisada del indice de produccion mensual.
La
> > Nueva data muestra con claridad como la reactivacion se inicio
ya
> > hace unos seis meses ya que los meses de bajo crecimiento
ocurridos
> > en julio y Agosto han desaprecido. La tasa revisada para estos
> meses
> > sube a cinco puntos porcentuales. La nueva serie estadistica
parece
> > ser mas consistentes que la serie anterior. Con la nuevas tasas
de
> > crecimiento es casi seguro que el crecimiento del PBI sea cinco
> > puntos porcentuales este año. De modo que sugiero una revision
> hacia
> > arriba de las tasa de las proyecciones.

Peru To Scrap `Fictional’ Monthly GDP Numbers

Posted in 3 Cables with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , on January 24, 2009 by Farid Matuk

29 October 2002 13:15
Dow Jones International News English (Copyright (c) 2002, Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)

By Virginia Rey-Sanchez

LIMA -(Dow Jones)- Peru will scrap its monthly gross domestic product indicator and instead release a monthly indicator of output in various sectors, Farid Matuk, the head of the National Statistics Institute, or INEI, said late Monday. Matuk told journalists that the monthly GDP number had been distorted by unreliable data, especially in the heavily weighted “other services” sector and in the retail sector.

Recently named as head of the INEI, Matuk said Peru had released “fictional information” since 1987 based on the way the GDP number was constructed. “We either continue with the fiction or we make the information realistic,” he said. A new monthly indicator known as “gross value added goods” will be released from next month, when the output for September is reported, he said. “What we will be giving out can’t be called GDP,” he added.

The new indicator will include a primary sector, taking into account agriculture, fishing and mining, and a secondary sector, including manufacturing, construction, electricity and water. Those sectors can also have sub-sectors, he said. But the new indicator won’t measure services contained in the “other” sector, nor growth in the retail sector.
Separate Data On Tax Intake; Move Welcomed

The INEI will also simultaneously but separately release information on movements in tax collections. Matuk said that a newly revised quarterly GDP number will be released after the agency updates the base year used for GDP calculations using data from 2001.

“Investors are going to have much more confidence in this statistic than in fictional information,” Matuk said. He added that the Finance Ministry and the Central Reserve Bank of Peru may give their own estimates for GDP.

INEI recently reported that GDP rose 3.8% in August from the year- earlier month, with the economy expanding 4.1% in the first eight months. President Alejandro Toledo recently predicted that Peru’s GDP will expand 4.0% this year, despite negative growth in Latin America overall. Private sector economists aren’t predicting yet how the statistical overhaul will affect INEI’s bottom-line numbers going forward, but some do think the move by the agency was overdue.

“The main problem with the old GDP numbers is that there wasn’t any exact way to calculate the `other services’ and retail, which meant they had to be estimated indirectly by taking percentages from other sectors,” said Elmer Cuba, an economist with Macroconsult, a local consultancy. Macroconsult said the new indicator will be a better barometer of the economy, as it won’t include calculations using tax collections, which are influenced by factors not tied to the economic cycle. “Until they (the INEI) give out the new GDP, the private sector will have to calculate one each month on the basis of leading indicators,” he added. The Finance Ministry has recently started to release a growth estimate based on a basket of leading indicators.

-By Virginia Rey-Sanchez, Dow Jones Newswires; 511-221-7050;
peru@dowjones.com

Fri Nov 22, 2002 1:45 pm

Posted in 2002-11 Noviembre with tags , , , , , , , on January 24, 2009 by Farid Matuk

Hola Javier:

Estuve leyendo ayer tu trabajo sobre “leading” y no me quedo
claro si tambien habrán “Coincident” y “Lagging”. Aquí te transcribo
un artículo que encontre a través de Yahoo! donde curiosamente lo
hace una .ORG, no un .GOV o un .COM. ¿Como se clasificaría el
indicador de MacroConsult?

Gracias, Farid.

********************************************

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Hold Steady

Nov. 21, 2002

More data and charts at http://www.globalindicators.org

The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading,
coincident and lagging indexes all held steady in October.

Strong real money growth and lower unemployment claims in October
offset weak consumer expectations and faster deliveries, as measured
by vendor performance.
The coincident index performance continues to suggest a recovering
yet fragile economy. Industrial production has shed some of its
gains from the first half of the year and nonagricultural employment
has essentially remained unchanged. Moderate growth in personal
income and manufacturing and trade sales continue to sustain
economic growth.
Although the leading index has been flat or declining over the past
five months, it is only 0.2 percent below its level from April of
this year.
Leading Indicators. Six of the ten indicators that make up the
leading index increased in October. The positive contributors to the
index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were real
money supply*, average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance (inverted), manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense
capital goods*, building permits, interest rate spread, and
manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials*. The
four negative contributors – from the largest negative contributor
to the smallest – were index of consumer expectations, vendor
performance, average weekly manufacturing hours, and stock prices.

The leading index now stands at 111.4 (1996=100). Based on revised
data, this index decreased 0.4 percent in September and decreased
0.2 percent in August. During the six-month span through October,
the leading index decreased 0.2 percent, with six of the ten
components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 40
percent).

Coincident Indicators. Two of the four indicators that make up the
coincident index increased in October. The larger contributor to the
index was personal income less transfer payments*, followed by
manufacturing and trade sales*. Industrial production decreased in
October while employees on nonagricultural payrolls held steady.

Holding steady, the coincident index now stands at 115.1 (1996=100).
Based on revised data, this index held steady in September and
increased 0.1 percent in August. During the six-month period through
October, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent.

Lagging Indicators. The lagging index held steady at 100.0
(1996=100) in October. Two of the seven components declined in
October. The negative contributors to the index – beginning with the
larger negative contributor – were commercial and industrial loans
outstanding* and change in CPI for services. The positive
contributors to the index were average duration of unemployment,
change in labor cost per unit of output*, ratio of consumer
installment credit to personal income*, and ratio of manufacturing
and trade inventories to sales*. Average prime rate charged by banks
held steady in October. Based on revised data, the lagging index
decreased 0.5 percent in September and decreased 0.2 percent in
August.

Data Availability. The data series used by The Conference Board to
compute the three composite indexes and reported in the tables in
this release are those available “as of” 12 Noon on November 20,
2002. Some series are estimated as noted below.

*Notes: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference
Board estimates are manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and
materials, manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods,
and the personal consumption expenditure deflator for money supply.
Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference
Board estimates are personal income less transfer payments and
manufacturing and trade sales. Series in the lagging index that are
based on The Conference Board estimates are inventories to sales
ratio, consumer installment credit to income ratio, change in labor
cost per unit of output, and the personal consumption expenditure
deflator for commercial and industrial loans outstanding.

The next release is scheduled for December 19, 2002 at 10 A.M. ET.

For further information contact:
Frank Tortorici
(1) 212 339 0231
f.tortorici@conference-board.org

Ken Goldstein
(1) 212 339 0331
ken.goldstein@conference-board.org

Tue Nov 12, 2002 3:02 am

Posted in 2002-11 Noviembre with tags , , , , , , , , on January 24, 2009 by Farid Matuk

Leading & I-P

 

Hola Bruno:

El INEI en modo alguno hará algo semejanet a “leading indicators”.
En los tiempos que enseñaba econometría aprendí de esos peligros.

De otro lado la I-P del 94 me parece pésima, y creo que
sería “misleading” como herramienta de agregación.

Segundo abrazo, Farid