Archive for monthly gdp

Fri Nov 15, 2002 2:01 am

Posted in 2002-11 Noviembre with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on January 24, 2009 by Farid Matuk

AYUDA ¿Alguien tiene idea quien será ese asesor del MEF que dice “(El
INEI ha) desarrollado una metodología de cálculo que (es) consistente
y válida (para el PBI mensual)”? Porque de acuerdo a la cooperación
canadiense no lo es, pero quizas él ha tenido oportunidad de
presentar la metodología en Finlandia, y nos puede explicar a todos.

HTTP://GatoEncerrado.Terra.Com.Pe

Jaloneos en el PBI
La decisión de abandonar la estimación del Producto Bruto Interno
(PBI) con periodicidad mensual para pasar a hacerlo solo
trimestralmente, tal como informó recientemente el Jefe del Instituto
Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI) Farik Matuk, podría
generar ciertas fricciones y asperezas con funcionarios del
Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas (MEF), y del Banco Central de
Reserva (BCR).

Como se recuerda, Matuk anunció hace unos días que este mes llegaría
al Perú una misión francesa a fin de proporcionar al INEI un programa
destinado a calcular un nuevo PBI teniendo como año base el 2001, en
reemplazo del actual cuya base es 1994. Al mismo tiempo, anunció que
a partir de noviembre ya no se publicaría el PBI mensual, sino el
Valor Agregado Bruto (VAB) con un mayor nivel de desagregación
sectorial. Sin embargo, el lunes, cuando presentó el VAB
correspondiente a setiembre, Matuk reconoció que todavía existían
ciertas dificultades con la calidad de este indicador, por lo que se
ha comprometido a calcular el PBI de setiembre y entregarlo en una
semana.

Estas idas y venidas tendrían que ver, fundamentalmente, con el hecho
que el INEI no habría coordinado estas medidas con los técnicos del
MEF ni con los del BCR, lo que sí hacía antes. Y esto, porque a Matuk
le pareció que el INEI al ser una entidad dependiente de la
Presidencia del Consejo de Ministros, solo le bastaba consultar con
el médico Luis Solari sobre asuntos de estadística.

En tanto, el ministro de Economía y Finanzas, Javier Silva Ruete,
parece que tampoco estaría muy enterado de este asunto, porque, según
se comenta en los pasillos del edificio del jirón Junín, su
pensamiento tiene cabida solo para el éxito de la próxima emisión de
bonos soberanos.

Sin embargo, fuentes del MEF comentaron que el dejar de lado el
cálculo del PBI mensual oficial por parte del INEI podría generar
algunas limitaciones en la ejecución de cálculos relacionados, por
ejemplo, con la presión tributaria, o inclusive para la toma de
decisiones en temas económicos y financieros.

Un asesor del despacho afirmó que en la mayoría de países de
Latinoamérica no se estima el PBI en forma mensual, porque no han
desarrollado una metodología de cálculo que sea consistente y válida,
lo que sí se ha hecho en nuestro país desde hace tiempo.

En ese sentido, destacó la nueva “Metodología de Indicadores Líderes”
que está desarrollando el MEF y que permite tener estimaciones del
PBI mensual con mayor anticipación. Precisó que esta metodología toma
en consideración 14 variables principales, como algunos impuestos,
gasto público, importaciones, créditos, tasas de interés, etc. Indicó
que antes de su presentación, este trabajo fue consistenciado y
evaluado por analistas y econometristas en diversos foros.

Finalmente, comentó que al parecer las autoridades del INEI, luego
que ya no publique el PBI mensual, sugerirían que se utilicen los
cálculos del MEF y del BCR en forma oficial. “En la práctica, las
autoridades del INEI se están haciendo el “harakiri”, pues en lugar
de afinar su metodología para lograr estimaciones y proyecciones más
precisas, la abandonan, con lo que podrían dar a entender que sus
técnicos no tienen vocación de análisis o no son competentes “,
concluyó.

A todo esto, ¿qué opinarán los amigos de Matuk en el BCR (Oscar
Dancourt) y el MEF (Kurt Burneo)?
11/14/2002 2:09:00 PM

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Wed Nov 13, 2002 11:27 pm

Posted in 2002-11 Noviembre with tags , , , , , , , , on January 24, 2009 by Farid Matuk

Reuters 12-XI-02

 

(New throughout)
By Jude Webber
LIMA, Peru, Nov 12 (Reuters) – Peru’s National Statistics
Institute published sector-by-sector production figures for
September on Tuesday that analysts said proved Latin America’s
No. 7 economy was growing faster than expected — for now.
The government agency, INEI, said in a report production in
the manufacturing sector — vital for much-needed jobs growth
— rose 7.43 percent in September compared with the same 2001
month, while output in the nation’s traditional mainstays of
fisheries and mining grew 18.31 and 2.8 percent respectively.
Agriculture output rose 3.69 percent, it said. The agency
gave no comparisons for the data.
INEI said last month that the gross domestic product data
it had been releasing monthly for the past 15 years were
faulty, and said the new-look sector-by-sector figures would be
the only indication of monthly economic performance until it
had corrected its methodology and rebased its index next year.
One of the main problems with the old data was how the
services sector was calculated, and INEI had planned to strip
that out and issue an aggregate figure for the primary and
secondary sectors — chiefly mining, fishing and industry —
that make up around half the economy.
But in a U-turn on Tuesday, INEI said it had changed its
mind on issuing monthly GDP data because it had been impossible
to work out an accurate new aggregate methodology in time, and
would still issue an old-style September GDP figure next week.
One economist at a large bank in Lima, who declined to be
named, said the sector-by-sector numbers signaled another month
of strong growth for Peru, which the government boasts is a
beacon amid the battered economies of Latin America.
“This (sector-by-sector data) would have given a September
GDP growth number of around 6 percent,” the economist said.
Asked if he agreed, INEI’s new chief Farid Matuk told
Reuters the 6 percent growth estimate was “totally sensible —
(perhaps) half a point up, half a point down.”
The Economy Ministry last week forecast September GDP
growth of 6.7 percent and 5.3 percent in October. The economist
said his own forecast for September was for 5 percent growth.

CAN PERU KEEP IT UP?
Guillermo Arbe, chief analyst at the private Apoyo
consultancy, said the figures were upbeat.
“We have indicators that show the economy, above all that
linked to internal demand, non-primary sectors, is growing …
more than we expected … It’s encouraging,” he said.
Peru is targeting 2002 growth of 3.7 percent after 0.2
percent last year. But the government admits the economy needs
to grow faster yet to translate growth into jobs — Peruvians’
No. 1 concern and one of the reasons why President Alejandro
Toledo’s popularity is down to around 20 percent in polls.
But asked whether the big growth rates would continue at
this clip, the bank economist said: “I think it’s over. We’ll
still show growth but it won’t be as high in the last quarter.
“A lot of the growth up until now has been because of a
statistical bounce. September 2001 was one of the worst months
there was,” he said. In September last year, the economy grew
2.7 percent.
The economist said the positive effects of tax measures
during the year, and of the giant Antamina copper and gold mine
which began operations last year and gave the economy a push,
were winding up.
“I think we should end the year with growth of 3.5 to 4
percent. But next year’s a bit more complicated,” the analyst
said. “There will have to be a lot of fiscal belt tightening.”

NEW-LOOK FIGURES NEXT YEAR
Matuk told Reuters the September GDP data would consist of
a single figure without a sector-by-sector breakdown, and would
be based on the same faulty methodology used for the past 15
years because there was no time to work out a new method.
From 2003, INEI will issue a new-style aggregate figure —
not the old GDP based on the faulty sums — while it works on
improving the math and rebasing the index in order to provide
more accurate, quarterly GDP numbers from mid-2003.
Another senior INEI official said the agency would release
the sector-wide data weekly from now on.
INEI gave the following data:

Sectors Sept 2002 Jan-Sept 2002
Agriculture and farming 3.69 5.26
Fisheries 18.31 -2.04
Mining 2.80 14.97
Manufacturing industry 7.43 3.09
– primary industry -1.90 -2.50
– non-primary industry 9.75 4.65
Electricity and water 5.06 5.45
Financial services 9.65 15.57
(Additional reporting by Missy Ryan)
((Lima newsroom, tel: +511 221 2130, fax +511 221 2133,
e-mail: lima.newsroom@reuters.com))

Tue Nov 5, 2002 1:11 am

Posted in 2002-11 Noviembre with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on January 23, 2009 by Farid Matuk

Otra versi`on periodistica basada en la misma entrevista de donde
Reuters produjo su reporte

Peru To Scrap `Fictional’ Monthly GDP Numbers

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
512 words
29 October 2002
13:15
Dow Jones International News
English
(Copyright (c) 2002, Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)

By Virginia Rey-Sanchez

LIMA -(Dow Jones)- Peru will scrap its monthly gross domestic product
indicator and instead release a monthly indicator of output in
various
sectors, Farid Matuk, the head of the National Statistics Institute,
or
INEI, said late Monday.

Matuk told journalists that the monthly GDP number had been distorted
by
unreliable data, especially in the heavily weighted “other services”
sector
and in the retail sector.

Recently named as head of the INEI, Matuk said Peru had
released “fictional
information” since 1987 based on the way the GDP number was
constructed.

“We either continue with the fiction or we make the information
realistic,”
he said.

A new monthly indicator known as “gross value added goods” will be
released
from next month, when the output for September is reported, he said.

“What we will be giving out can’t be called GDP,” he added.

The new indicator will include a primary sector, taking into account
agriculture, fishing and mining, and a secondary sector, including
manufacturing, construction, electricity and water.

Those sectors can also have sub-sectors, he said.

But the new indicator won’t measure services contained in the “other”
sector, nor growth in the retail sector.
Separate Data On Tax Intake; Move Welcomed

The INEI will also simultaneously but separately release information
on
movements in tax collections.

Matuk said that a newly revised quarterly GDP number will be released
after
the agency updates the base year used for GDP calculations using data
from
2001.

“Investors are going to have much more confidence in this statistic
than in
fictional information,” Matuk said.

He added that the Finance Ministry and the Central Reserve Bank of
Peru may
give their own estimates for GDP.

INEI recently reported that GDP rose 3.8% in August from the year-
earlier
month, with the economy expanding 4.1% in the first eight months.

President Alejandro Toledo recently predicted that Peru’s GDP will
expand
4.0% this year, despite negative growth in Latin America overall.

Private sector economists aren’t predicting yet how the statistical
overhaul
will affect INEI’s bottom-line numbers going forward, but some do
think the
move by the agency was overdue.

“The main problem with the old GDP numbers is that there wasn’t any
exact
way to calculate the `other services’ and retail, which meant they
had to be
estimated indirectly by taking percentages from other sectors,” said
Elmer
Cuba, an economist with Macroconsult, a local consultancy.

Macroconsult said the new indicator will be a better barometer of the
economy, as it won’t include calculations using tax collections,
which are
influenced by factors not tied to the economic cycle.

“Until they (the INEI) give out the new GDP, the private sector will
have to
calculate one each month on the basis of leading indicators,” he
added.

The Finance Ministry has recently started to release a growth
estimate based
on a basket of leading indicators.

-By Virginia Rey-Sanchez, Dow Jones Newswires; 511-221-7050;
peru@dowjones.com

Mon Nov 4, 2002 11:24 pm

Posted in 2002-11 Noviembre with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on January 23, 2009 by Farid Matuk

Aqui les paso una versi`on periodistica resultado de una entrevista
de dos horas a Reuters, Dow-Jones, Bloomberg y Gesti`on el martes 29
pasado. Creo que esta es una versi`on informada de las razones para
el obituario, y refleja adecuadamente las razones de la decisi`on y
las alternativas a difundir.

> > Peru says got GDP math wrong for 15 years (1)
> > Source: RTR_NA – Reuters North American Securities News
> > Oct 29 11:15
> > By Jude Webber
> > LIMA, Peru, Oct 29 (Reuters) – Peru has admitted it has
> > been reporting its key economic indicator, gross domestic
> > product growth, wrongly for the past 15 years and will publish
> > only partial data from now on until it can correct its sums.
> > Farid Matuk, who took over as head of the government’s
> > National Statistics Institute (INEI) in August, told reporters
> > late on Monday it had been a mistake to publish GDP data on a
> > monthly basis since 1987, when every other country in the world
> > except Canada and Finland published quarterly, because monthly
> > figures contained a wide margin of error.
> > Furthermore, he said the way the monthly figures were
> > calculated had also factored in a “false illusion” of the
> > performance of the service sector, meaning that the official
> > data “was not solid” and could not be trusted.
> > INEI will therefore strip the service and trade segments
> > out of its GDP numbers for the next few months, leaving a
> > snapshot of the performance of only around half of Latin
> > America’s No. 7 economy, which is worth around $54 billion on
> > current reckoning and leans heavily on mining and fishing.
> > “I can’t produce erroneous information. I’d rather partial
> > data that is clear than full data that is murky,” Matuk said.
> > While it rebases its index and sorts out its methodology,
> > INEI will publish only what Matuk called “hard figures” on the
> > detailed monthly output of goods in the primary and secondary
> > sectors — agriculture, fishing, mining, manufacturing,
> > utilities and construction — plus tax data.
> > Data for trade and “other services,” which covers mainly
> > transport, financial and public sector services, will go.
> > The first set of new-look figures, called “gross value
> > added production,” are due out next week, for September.
> > The government of unpopular President Alejandro Toledo says
> > Peru’s economic performance is stellar in a crisis-wracked
> > region, and is forecasting growth of at least 3.7 percent this
> > year, compared with 0.2 percent in 2001. According to current
> > calculations, GDP grew 3.8 percent in August and 4.1 percent in
> > the first eight months compared with the same 2001 periods.
> > NEW 2001 BASE
> > Once INEI has sorted out its sums, it will switch to
> > reporting complete GDP numbers, but on a quarterly basis.
> > Matuk said INEI would revise its 2001 GDP data in the next
> > few weeks, according to the current 1994 base year and method
> > of reckoning. But it will not publish full 2002 GDP data —
> > that will be up to the economy ministry and central bank.
> > He hoped that by July 2003, INEI would be ready to publish
> > the total value of Peru’s economy, in dollar terms, according
> > to a new 2001 base, followed by quarterly GDP data. That was
> > likely to have a delay of six months to begin with.
> > “There was a lot of resistance within INEI (to the new
> > method of calculation),” Matuk said. “But either we perpetuate
> > the fiction or we sort out the information, and I think sorting
> > out the information is the right thing to do.”
> > Current GDP data uses information provided voluntarily by
> > some 30,000 companies, but Matuk said INEI also had extensive
> > data from household and employment surveys from nearly 40,000
> > homes nationwide that would help complete the picture.
> > France’s national statistics agency is providing the
> > software for the new calculations, and is sending a team of
> > experts to Peru next month to help INEI get to work.
> > Matuk said Peru was also working with other countries on a
> > World Bank project to harmonize calculation of purchasing power
> > parity by 2005 based on a basket of 4,000 universal goods.
> > ((Lima newsroom, tel: +511 221 2130, fax +511 221 2133,
> > e-mail: lima.newsroom@reuters.com))
> > REUTERS

Mon Nov 4, 2002 10:59 pm

Posted in 2002-11 Noviembre with tags , , , , , , , on January 23, 2009 by Farid Matuk

Nuevo Indice

 

Hola Lalo:

En el obituario del PBI mensual, se indicaba que a partir del
proximo mes (este mes de Noviembre) se publicar`an Valor Agregado
Bruto (VAB) sectoriales a precios b`asicos. En la metodolog`ia
antigua esto ser`ia equivalente al PBI a precio de factores. Ya que
en la metodologia nueva existen precios b`asicos, precios de
productor, y precios de comprador.

De otro lado en el ultimo boletin, se anexan las series completas
mensuales de los VAB sectoriales a fin de hacer an`alisis de series
de tiempo, y estoy en el esfuerzo de poder retropolarlas al l`imite
de lo posible.

Gracias por el comentario.

Farid

— In MacroPeru@y…, Eduardo Moron <emoron@u…> wrote:
> Farid
>
> Por una cuestion de transparencia, en mi opinion se deberia dejar de
> publicar el PBI viejo a partir de la fecha en que pueda el INEI
publicar
> algo semejante, es decir un indicador de actividad economica
mensual.
>
> un abrazo
>
> Lalo Moron
> UP
>
> —–Mensaje original—–
> De: MacroPeru@y… [mailto:MacroPeru@y…]
> Enviado el: Sabado, 02 de Noviembre de 2002 12:20 p.m.
> Para: MacroPeru@y…
> Asunto: [MacroPeru] New file uploaded to MacroPeru
>
>
>
> Hello,
>
> This email message is a notification to let you know that
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