We are in the same boat (17-III-09)

In July 2007, I did a series of graphs with quarterly data that I copy below with IFS compact disk from International Monetary Fund, in order to find how syncronizated was Peru and the countries around it with the industrialized countries.

The spreadsheet is here, the tab called “Data” contains all numbers for the graph, and the numbers above the red line are taken from IMF compact disk with no modification, column F contains IMF codes for each variable.

Besides obvious lags, the syncronization is evident and only differences are due to national policies of how to face boom and bust cycles. The most pathetic example is Peru with Garcia’s first term where the policy was against the tide, and economic failure established a regional record.

Colombia - Peru (Manufacturing Production)

In this graph is possible to see how maximum and minimum values through the cycle are in sync between Colombia and Peru for manufacturing production.

Chile - Peru (Manufacturing Production)

In this graph is possible to see how maximum and minimum values through the cycle are in sync between Chile and Peru for manufacturing production.

Just a Coincidence?

Next three graphs show the relation of Colombia, Chile, and Peru manufacturing production index with the IMF’s Advanced Economies industrial production index.

Advanced Economies - Colombia (Manufacturing Production)

Advanced Economies - Chile (Manufacturing Production)

Advanced Economies - Peru (Manufacturing Production)

In the graphs for Colombia and Chile, for early 90s there is breakdown in the relation between both countries and the Advanced Economies, an explanation for this could be find in graph below that shows a similar gap between USA and the Advanced Economies. Therefore Colombia and Chile are more in sync with USA than with the Advanced Economies.

Advanced Economies - USA (Manufacturing Production)

Finally, in Peru graph is possible to see how Garcia in his first term (1985-1990) had two all time records, one for maximum manufacturing production with a peak of 8% in the beginning of his tenure and other for minimum manufacturing production with a trough of -10% at the end of his tenure.

And now again, Garcia likes to sail against the tide and for sure as before Peru will sink at unthinkable degree, due to Garcia manic need to negate external reality.

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